Well, that didn’t go like we wanted it to! The death knell for the NL East has tolled and it sounds a lot like the Liberty Bell, at that. The Atlanta Braves dropped the four-game series to the Philadelphia Phillies and two of the losses came in extremely painful fashion to watch. The main positive that we can take away from this series is that the Braves didn’t get swept but at the same time, it still hurts to know that whatever hope there was for the division has essentially been washed away.
It’s definitely a bummer but it’s still worth talking about what went down over the course of this series in Philadelphia. While most of it is still pretty rough to examine, there’s still a bit of positivity to talk about, so maybe we can get something out of this. However, we gotta go through the bad to get to the good, so bear with me, here.
Time to focus completely on the Wild Card
The Braves could’ve made things interesting this month if they had somehow come out of the snake pit that is Citizens Bank Park with a sweep. The mission would’ve been possible with a series win. There may have been a glimmer of hope with a split. Anything less than a split meant that the streak of divisional titles would very likely turn the month of September into a divisional victory tour for the Phillies.
As it turned out, the Braves ended up dropping three-out-of-four and it was a very frustrating result to take since this could’ve easily been Atlanta taking the series had just a couple of things gone Atlanta’s way. Instead, we got what we got and now it’s looking even more likely that we’re going to have an NL East champion from outside of Cobb County for the first time since the Nationals ran away with it back in 2016.
The good news for the Braves is that they’ve still played pretty well as of late and both the Padres and Diamondbacks are still within striking distance at three games ahead. While it might be disappointing to essentially cede the division away with this weekend’s results, the good news is that this season’s playoffs are going to be as wide open as they’ve ever been. Additionally, the six-seed has made the World Series in each of the past two seasons so it’s obvious that the most important thing is to simply get into the tournament. As long as the Braves can accomplish that, then the ultimate dream is still alive.
Did Brian Snitker’s tactics cost the Braves in this series?
There were two losses in particular in this series where the main question at the end of the night was whether or not Brian Snitker goofed up by leaving his starter in for too long. In the first game of this series, Charlie Morton got into the sixth inning before running into trouble. With two men on and one out, Snitker left Morton in to face Brandon Marsh and that decision turned into Marsh hitting a three-run dinger that brought the Phillies to life. Grant Holmes then got burnt by throwing a fastball right down the middle to Nick Castellanos and the Braves ended up losing 5-4.
Then on Sunday, Spencer Scwhellenbach had dominated for five innings and had gotten two outs into the sixth inning before he ran into trouble. Trea Turner hit a two-out single to get things going, Bryce Harper blooped one opposite field on a 2-2 count for a double and then (that man again) Nick Castellanos hit a double on an 0-2 count to tie the game at 2. The game eventually went to extras and the game eventually ended with Grant Holmes throwing another fastball right down the middle to (that man again) Nick Castellanos to end the game.
Now, the first situation is extremely hard to defend. Morton was clearly tiring and while he had struck out Marsh twice on the night, Marsh is still a much better hitter against right-handers (career 117 wRC+) than left-handers (career 60 wRC+). Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that Phillies manager Rob Thomson wasn’t going to pinch-hit for Marsh if the Braves had gone with a left-handed pitcher — in this case, being Aaron Bummer. Plus it was the third time through the order so Snitker was really pushing it by leaving Morton in for as long as he did, and he ended up paying for it. The resulting homer may have been a bit of a fluke where a pop-up plus wind plus Citizens Bank Park being Citizens Bank Park equaled a home run but the process was still bad.
As far as the situation on Sunday goes? I’d say that this was just a case of rolling snake eyes on the dice roll. Again, Schwellenbach had both Harper and Castellanos down to their last strikes and couldn’t put him away. The Harper double in particular was just infuriating to watch but at the same time, it’s just the risk you run when you deal with the heart of the order for the third time — particularly when you face this Phillies lineup. Schwellenbach was cruising until he wasn’t and was one pitch away on two separate occasions. So I’d say that while Snitker was certainly to blame for the loss on Thursday, I’d say that execution was to blame on Sunday — especially given that Grant Holmes also went right back to throwing a fastball right down the middle to Castellanos like Thursday night never even happened. Blah!
Reynaldo López continues to get it done
I don’t want to end this on a downer, so I’ll highlight a positive performance. I already talked at length about that astonishing catch that Michael Harris II made on Saturday night but also, we gotta talk about how Reynaldo López just continues to make it happen for the Braves this season. Even with the Phillies seeing him for the third time this season and also getting to see him in their own dojo for once, it didn’t matter. López still pitched six more strong innings against them, giving up only one run and striking out six in the process. He kept Philly quiet and he was a huge reason why the Braves were able to get out of there with at least one win.
The season that López has had has been truly remarkable. He’s thrown over 100 innings for the first time since 2019 and this is quite easily the best season of his career. His ERA- for the season is now all the way down to 47, which would be the lowest mark of his career by an extremely large margin. While his FIP- of 76 and xFIP- of 91 suggest that he might be getting away with some stuff out there, it’s not like he’s simply being carried by the luck of the baseball gods, either. His slider has causing hitters to whiff at it 42 percent of the time and his curveball has also been getting whiffs on 37 percent of occasions. He’s getting batters to swing and miss and usually that’ll result in good things if you can be consistent about it.
Assuming nothing wacky happens between now and October, it’s very easy to see Reynaldo López playing a major role in any potential run that this team can make in the near future. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been great all year and when it comes time to lay all the cards on the table, López has performed well enough this season to where he should absolutely be trusted to help carry the Braves through big games later on this season. Here’s hoping that the Braves can consolidate their Postseason chances so that he’ll get the chance to help this team when it matters the most!
